How to set your 2026 fundraising projections

Hey Reader,

If you haven't already set your 2026 budget, you're likely being asked by your finance team or board to set your 2026 fundraising projections. As a reminder, fundraising projections are NOT fundraising goals.

Goals are aspirational. Projections are conservative.

Projections are about what funding you are highly confident will come in, so your 2026 budget is built on realistic expectations. This is not the time to include a grant you might get or a donor you plan to ask. This is the time to set expectations early, cautiously, and clearly.

Here’s a step-by-step way to do it (including if you are the solo fundraiser or Executive Director/CEO), and I included a link to the NonProfit Annual Budget Tracker in Google Sheets if you're looking for a simple way to set your 2026 budget afterwards.

1. Start with a full list of revenue sources

Write all your revenue resources down with 2 columns: how much came in 2025, and how much you're HIGHLY confident will come in for 2026. I use the following areas:

• Grants - include funds that are already committed, renewals you've been explicitly told are confirmed, verbal confirmations you trust. DO NOT include grants you applied for but haven't heard back about yet.
• Individual donors - first, define your major gift threshold (this is different for every org - it could be $25,000, $5,000, or even $500). Then, go line by line through every major donor. If they are consistent, include the $ they reliably give. If they are sporadic, use a more conservative amount (ex. if a donor gives $5k some years but not all years, I would include $2,500)
• Annual fund / small donors - for small $ donors, total how much they gave collectively in 2025 to estimate what they gave in 2026. Including a small % increase is okay, but don't assume dramatic changes unless you've seen that pattern reliably before.
• Events - similar to annual fund/small donors, start with last year’s net revenue. You can add a small increase for growth, but remember anything you write down will be used to build the budget. The stakes are much higher if you don’t hit your numbers.
• Any other earned or contributed revenue - interest, reserves, etc.

Total this revenue to see how much $ you are confident will come in for 2026.

2. “Reach” revenue: include it carefully

Now that you have highly confirmed revenue, you can include revenue you’re reaching for, such as new donors, upgrades, new campaigns. But, make sure it's based on what you've accomplished before, keep it modest, and be ready to explain how you arrived at that number. If you can’t explain it, it’s probably too optimistic.

3. The back and forth

Now that you have your total $ projected for revenue expected in 2026, you will share that number with your organization and likely go back and forth to arrive at a number you're comfortable with.

The programs team may come back and say "we tallied up our expected expenses for 2026, and it's about $XXXX more than your projected revenue." These become the discussions about what needs to get cut from the drafted budget, or what you may need to increase in your projections.

This is normal.

But if you’re representing the development team, this is NOT the moment to oversell.

You can still raise more. You can still set ambitious goals later. Projections are about protecting the organization by being honest and realistic now.

BONUS: If You’re a Solo Executive Director / CEO

Even if you don't have a finance team or program staff to work together on your 2026 budget, all of this still applies - and it matters even more. Remember to be conservative with yourself.

• Pressure-test your numbers with one trusted person
• Build a budget you can live with, not one that keeps you up at night
• Remember: it’s better to outperform projections than constantly explain shortfalls

If you take one thing away, let it be this:

Fundraising projections are about confidence, not optimism. You don’t need to promise the moon - you need numbers you can stand behind.

Now if you're ready for the next step to actually set your budget, you can get the NonProfit Annual Budget Tracker for Google Docs at the template shop - don't forget to use your coupon code as a subscriber for 25% off!

Cheers,
Kayla

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